What it is
Variance analysis explains why actuals differ from plan, prior, or forecast — with drivers, not adjectives. In SaaS it spans ARR movements, margin, opex, and cash.
How it’s done
Pick a comparison basis, quantify the gap, attribute to drivers (volume, price, mix, timing, one-timers), and propose actions. ARR variances should point at waterfall components.
Where it breaks
Variance analysis breaks when the plan and actuals use different ARR definitions, when every gap is “timing,” or when commentary is written before close freeze.
In the board pack
Variance analysis feeds MD&A. Keep citations tied to certified metrics — see AI variance commentary to a CFO standard.
Keep the written definition stable across close, the board pack, and diligence so the same word never means two math models.